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Texas GOP Adjusts to a Ballot with No Bush

ANTHONY BROOKS, host:

Now on to Texas. With its cowboy-size delegate count, the Lone Star State represents a crucial contest for the Democratic candidates. But tomorrow's vote might also be a turning point for the Republican Party in Texas.

DAY TO DAY's Alex Cohen reports.

ALEX COHEN: Senator John McCain is expected to win in Texas, but it may not be a slam dunk. Plenty of Republicans here fall into the anybody-but-McCain camp. And now, while their party's nomination is at least technically up for grabs, many have been throwing their support to Mike Huckabee.

(Soundbite of cheering)

COHEN: Huckabee made a recent campaign stop at the Alamo in San Antonio, a landmark that he said inspired him.

Governor MIKE HUCKABEE (Republican, Arkansas): You don't engage in your battles only because you anticipate that you're going to win them. You engage in your battles because you believe they're right.

COHEN: Among those listening to Huckabee was 55-year-old Bonnie Brown of Raymondville, Texas. Bonnie said she's looking for a candidate who will bring real change.

Ms. BONNIE BROWN: This man just, I don't know, he speaks to my heart, you know. And I'm a Christian and he's a Christian and I just feel like we've gotten so far away from not necessarily Christian but just the whole idea of doing things right.

COHEN: But many Texans aren't feeling like any of the remaining Republican candidates speak to their hearts. Maybe it's the lack of a native son in the race. Keep in mind, this is only the second election in 28 years that the name Bush hasn't been on the ballot for either president or vice president. And that just about breaks Valerie Satrano's(ph) heart.

Ms. VALERIE SATRANO (Owner, The Coffee Shop Cafe): I just wish he would - I could vote for him again. To be honest, I'd write him in if I could.

COHEN: Valerie owns The Coffee Shop Cafe in McGregor, Texas, a few miles down the road from Mr. Bush's ranch in Crawford.

Ms. SATRANO: That's actually the first time he came to the coffee shop.

COHEN: Valerie shows me a series of photos hanging in the front of the restaurant, pictures of her with George W. Bush, his father and a host of political celebrities.

Ms. SATRANO: Condi Rice, Tony Blair.

COHEN: Is that you and Dick Cheney?

Ms. SATRANO: Dick Cheney, yes.

COHEN: Without a Bush on the ballot, Valerie says, she's not certain which candidate she'll vote for tomorrow.

Ms. SATRANO: I'm seriously thinking about voting for Huckabee, but I don't know. I'm still - I'm seriously undecided. Most people wish that Romney would've stayed in the campaign, but we vote for who we have, don't we.

COHEN: As for other voters in town, Valerie's been appalled by some of the things diners here are saying.

Ms. SATRANO: The first day of early voting I heard the word Obama out of a Republican mouth, and I just couldn't stay quiet. I just couldn't believe that they were voting for him and almost chastised him for doing so.

COHEN: Republicans in Bush country voting for Obama? This is just one of many signs that the Grand Old Party is facing some brand new changes.

Daren Shaw teaches government at the University of Texas at Austin. He says the Republican Party really took of in this state in the 1990s thanks to a key strategy developed by Karl Rove.

Professor DARON SHAW (University of Texas at Austin): And that was identifying Republican voters and getting to the polls. What we call in the industry flushing.

COHEN: But, Shaw says, the landscape in 2008 looks very different. Especially with all the buzz surrounding the Democratic presidential candidates, the GOP has to step it up if they want Texans to vote their way.

Prof. SHAW: I think they're disappointed with some of the aspects of Republican leadership here as well as nationally. And you're going to have to win them this time around. That is, I think, the challenge for Republican leadership here.

COHEN: Shaw points out yet another challenge facing Republicans. In recent years demographics in Texas have changed tremendously.

Prof. SHAW: The Latino population, the Asian population, it's becoming very, very significant in places like Houston. What do Republicans say to these potential voters to get them identify with the Republican Party?

COHEN: And there is a lot at stake in these elections. In addition to choosing a president, there are many local races in Texas this year. As of now, Republicans hold every statewide elected office and majorities in both the State House and Senate.

Mr. HANS KLINGLER (Republican Party Operative): While that may seem like a position that's admirable, it puts us in the position of being basically on the defense.

COHEN: Hans Klingler, director of political operations for the Republican Party of Texas says his party is up for the fight. He says Texans may not feel as passionate about John McCain just yet, but he's confident they'll warm to the candidate.

Mr. KLINGLER: McCain has a long institutional footprint in Texas. Obviously he shares some parallel visions with our Texas Republican leaders in that he is a, you know, a border state senator.

COHEN: And he says John McCain is a maverick, and that persona plays well in the Lone Star state. Klingler feels confident that no matter who the nominees are on either side, Texas will remain a red state.

But not everyone agrees. If history proves anything, says former Republican Party vice chair David Barton, it's that things change.

(Soundbite of podcast)

Mr. DAVID BARTON (WallBuilders): Welcome to the intersection of faith and politics, WallBuilders live with David Barton.

COHEN: David Barton heads a Christian advocacy group called WallBuilders. He travels the country talking to voters in person and through his daily podcast. He says this year more than any other election year he's heard complaints from conservative voters who don't like any of the Republican candidates. And what Barton often says in response, check the Bible.

Mr. BARTON: Hebrews 11 is the faith hall of fame. And if you look at that group, I don't think Republicans will vote for anybody in that chapter. You know, David had affair with Bathsheba, and you know, Moses murdered a guy, and you go through all those great heroes and they all had something major wrong, but they all ended up doing something really good out of that. And we have a tendency, I think, to hold some almost false standards at times. We want a perfect candidate. And you know, as a Christian I tell people, hey, Jesus ain't on the ballot.

COHEN: Barton advises voters who don't like any of the current candidates to pick the one they think will do the least harm. And even if there isn't a Republican in the White House come this time next year, he adds, it won't be the end of the world.

Mr. BARTON: I try to look 30 years down the road. And for me, this is just a little bump in the road.

COHEN: If 2008 doesn't pan out, Barton says, there's always 2012.

Alex Cohen, NPR News. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

Alex Cohen
Alex Cohen is the reporter for NPR's fastest-growing daily news program, Day to Day where she has covered everything from homicides in New Orleans to the controversies swirling around the frosty dessert known as Pinkberry.