DUBAI – President Trump is hosting Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House Tuesday for talks expected to produce deals touching on defense, artificial intelligence and nuclear technology. The visit underscores how a close relationship formed under the president's first term is yielding gains that both leaders can tout domestically.
Trump has said he will honor Saudi Arabia and the crown prince on this visit, which will be his first trip back to the U.S. since the killing of a prominent Saudi writer and critic seven years ago, which sparked international outcry.
While some pomp and pageantry are expected, it's the personal ties between Trump and Prince Mohammed and transactional deals girded by business that will be on display.
The trip also marks a turning point for Prince Mohammed; his last visit seven years ago came just months before his aides killed Saudi critic and Washington Post columnist, Jamal Khashoggi. The CIA concluded the crown prince approved the operation that killed Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Turkey, but Prince Mohammed maintained he had no knowledge of the attack, which he's called "heinous" and "unjustifiable."
The crown prince oversees the kingdom's vast oil wealth. He's has already vowed to invest $600 billion, or more, in the United States during Trump's time in office, but he wants a defense pact, access to advanced AI chips and a civilian nuclear deal that may involve enrichment outside the kingdom's territory in exchange for the deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons systems on Saudi soil, according to analysts.
Prince Mohammed also wants advanced F-35 jets that only Israel currently flies in the Middle East. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday that a deal will be happening, though it's unclear if it will be indirectly linked to Trump's ask for Saudi Arabia to normalize ties with Israel. The current far-right Israeli government, however, rejects Saudi conditions for Palestinian statehood.
A return to Washington for the crown prince
Prince Mohammed was widely condemned following the 2018 murder of Khashoggi, a vocal critic of the crown prince and columnist for the Washington Post. Khashoggi fled Riyadh in 2017 to live in self-exile in Virginia. He was killed in Turkey in October 2018, shortly after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to obtain documents for his upcoming marriage. His body was dismembered and never recovered, according to a U.N. inquiry. A CIA investigation later determined 15 Saudi agents had flown to Istanbul as part of an operation approved by Prince Mohammed.
But a lot has changed in the years since. Prince Mohammed has positioned Saudi Arabia as an increasingly influential regional power, and deepened the kingdom's ties with major world leaders – including in the U.S. Analysts say he's returning to Washington as a partner, not a pariah.
"Today, he arrives not as a promising leader, but as a regional power broker and also a global actor whose role you cannot bypass," says Saudi political analyst Hesham Alghannam, speaking on a web panel hosted by the Arab Gulf States Institute days before the visit.
Despite a continued clampdown on activists and critics in the kingdom, Trump has hailed the prince a great leader, describing him as an "incredible man" and "great guy."
Saudi Arabia wants U.S. security guarantees
Prince Mohammed, known also as MBS, is said to be traveling to Washington with a 1,000-strong entourage that includes his top ministers, security officials and Saudi business leaders.
On the agenda are issues ranging from the war in Sudan to the ceasefire in Gaza. The aim of the prince's visit, though, is to firm up his country's ties with the U.S. which remains the kingdom's most important security partner, despite efforts by China and Russia to grow their influence in the region.
Analysts say the most important deal he's eyeing, and which is expected to be signed during his time in Washington, is a U.S. defense pact similar to Trump's recent executive order signed with Qatar following Israeli and Iranian attacks on the small Gulf state over the summer.
A defense pact does not require Congressional approval, making it less binding than a defense treaty, but it still states the U.S. will defend that country through diplomatic, economic, and, if necessary, military measures in the event of an attack.
Bilal Saab, a former adviser at the Pentagon who's with Trends Research and Advisory, said the Saudi defense pact might have a "little more icing on the cake" than what was promised to the Qataris, but he says it will similarly offer "unilateral security guarantees" from the Trump administration to help the Saudi leadership feel more protected from a variety of threats in the region.
Saab said he's against pacts like this that do not also compel countries to protect U.S. assets and personnel in the region.
"The problem is, I don't think the Saudis are in a position to honor any such terms," he said.
Personal ties underride the visit
Trump is expected to host a dinner for the crown prince while the Saudis are also hosting a major investment forum on the sidelines of the trip with top U.S. executives of major hedge funds, defense firms and technology firms.
Alongside the flurry of bilateral deals are also billions of dollars from the Gulf flowing into Trump family ventures, from crypto to real estate.
Raghida Dergham, chair of the Beirut Institute think tank, says there's a blurred line between Trump's family business and his administration.
"And they don't hide it. They don't make that a secret. They think this is part of what happens anywhere in the world," she says. "But it's very unlike the traditions of the United States, because you separate family from country."
There are several Trump-branded golf courses and towers being developed across the Gulf, including in Saudi Arabia, by a private Saudi developer. Just months after leaving the White House as adviser in Trump's first term, the president's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, also got seed money to start his private equity fund from a sovereign wealth fund overseen by the Saudi crown prince: $2 billion worth, according to the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal.
The White House says there's no conflict of interest, and that it's "ridiculous" to suggest he's doing anything for his own benefit.
Ultimately, Tuesday's meeting gives Trump an opportunity to tout big investments – in defense, energy, mining, technology and more – that he says create jobs in the U.S. It also offers Prince Mohammed a chance to solidify ties with the U.S. as he races to transform the Saudi economy from oil dependency and create millions of jobs for young Saudis entering the workforce.
"It's no secret that Trump and his family have a lot of business interests and the Saudis and many around the world have seen that as an opening to deal with the Trump administration and have sought dividends through that mechanism," said Paul Salem, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, based in Beirut.
Still, he says Saudi Arabia has to be careful, like Israel and others, that it does not get too deep into U.S. partisan politics with relations swinging from one party to another "because the U.S. is a very divided country today."
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