ARI SHAPIRO, HOST:
Fans of Mexican Coke, listen up. Coca-Cola announced today it'll start selling a version of Coke sweetened with U.S. cane sugar in just a couple months. This comes after President Trump encouraged the company to use sugar rather than high-fructose corn syrup. We don't know how much of the cane sugar Coke, the company, plans to produce, but the announcement raises questions about cost and the U.S. sugar supply. Kevin Combs is the sweetener specialist at the research firm McKeany-Flavell. Welcome to ALL THINGS CONSIDERED.
KEVIN COMBS: Thanks, Ari.
SHAPIRO: Does the U.S. sugar industry have enough supply to meet a shift in demand from a company as big as Coca-Cola?
COMBS: If they tried to convert completely from high-fructose corn syrup, the answer's a resounding no.
SHAPIRO: How much of a shift could Coca-Cola make without overextending the cane sugar supply in the U.S.?
COMBS: Well, it's an interesting question because we produce both beet and cane here in the United States, and then we also have a refining industry in the United States. But to source only cane sugar would be very difficult, especially after one of the largest cane companies just announced they're closing a refinery at the end of this year.
SHAPIRO: Well, sugar cane is still grown in the United States. Could farmers just plant a lot more to catch up with the new demand?
COMBS: In Florida, we've seen stagnant area, even with cane prices and sugar prices going up over the years. And there's always been Save the Everglades issues. So expansion would be very difficult. Whereas Louisiana has been continually expanding over the past 10 years, so I think they could expand a little bit. But most of this increased consumption of cane would have to come from imports.
SHAPIRO: All right. Well, if we are talking about imports, what countries would we likely be importing from, and would Trump's tariffs have an impact on the price?
COMBS: Yes. Brazil is the largest producer of sugar in the world and would be a natural source. Yet we just had announcement of 50% tariffs on Brazil, so that would make this much more challenging and likely expensive as a result.
SHAPIRO: OK, so how is this going to work then?
COMBS: I think it's going to be in moderation. And you look at one of the other cola companies did over 10 years ago, and they did a line extension. And so the volume has been pretty small on how much sugar they use versus high-fructose corn syrup. And I'm going to guess this is going to be a moderated line extension versus a large switch, at least initially.
SHAPIRO: The Coca-Cola company used the word complement to describe this, that it's going to accompany the drinks it offers rather than replace them. Sounds like you're saying maybe this is more of a statement for marketing and political purposes than a wholesale changeover.
COMBS: Correct. It's definitely not a wholesale changeover. It'd take the sugar industry many years to build up the capacity to handle volume from a company like Coca-Cola.
SHAPIRO: Speaking as a consumer rather than an analyst, do you have a preference for corn syrup-sweetened Coke versus cane sugar Coke?
COMBS: You know, I love it all, and I drink both. If you put the two in front of me, just having the nostalgia impact, I would choose cane sugar. But I love both products.
SHAPIRO: Kevin Combs is an expert in sugar supply and demand with McKeany-Flavell. Thank you so much.
COMBS: Thank you, Ari. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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