MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Let's take another look at where this conflict could be headed with analyst Karim Sadjadpour. He has studied Iran and the Iranian-American relationship for years. He's a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Karim Sadjadpour, thanks so much for joining us once again.
KARIM SADJADPOUR: Thank you, Michel.
MARTIN: So writing online this morning, President Trump is saying that the U.S. will hold off on striking Iranian power plants just hours before an ultimatum he had issued was due to expire. He says the two sides are in talks to wind down this war. So what is your sense of what could be a path to de-escalating this or winding down this conflict?
SADJADPOUR: Well, I think, Michel, that President Trump didn't want to carry out attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure because that would really go over badly with Iran's population and then Iran's potential to retaliate against Persian Gulf countries could further spike the price of oil. So I think that President Trump didn't want to go through with that. That said, I'm skeptical that we're anywhere closer to a resolution to this conflict. And the Iranians, in fact, say that there hasn't been any either direct or indirect negotiations with the United States.
MARTIN: Interesting. How do you think the president quantifies success in this conflict?
SADJADPOUR: I think his metrics for success have changed. At the beginning of the conflict, I think his hope was to turn Iran from an adversary into a partner, as we saw in Venezuela. I think that that is not likely anymore a near-term objective for the president. I think at this point, at a minimum, he has to find a way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which, as we all know, is this critical energy corridor. And that is not going to be an easy task.
MARTIN: What do you think are the metrics that influence him? I know - forgive me if I'm asking you to sort of get into the president's mind, but just knowing the inputs as you do, what do you think are the metrics that are most pressing for the president?
SADJADPOUR: Well, I think there are three quantifiable metrics and one intangible. The three quantifiable metrics are in some ways related to American public opinion. One is the price of oil - you know, how are Americans feeling about this war when they're - when they go to the gas pumps and they're paying perhaps a dollar more per gallon? And related to that is public opinion polling. What we know is that the president - this war is very unpopular with most Americans, but for Trump's base, they're still supporting him around 9 out of 10. And then finally, the third P is projectiles - you know, how many missiles and drones and missile launchers does Iran have left? How many do the United States and Israel have left?
But there is this intangible, Michel, which will be determinative, which is resolve. The Iranians have full resolve because for them, if they lose this war and the government collapses, you know, they could lose their lives, so they have 10 out of 10 resolve. President Trump, on the other hand, I think is much more ambivalent, and, as I said, the price of oil and public opinion polling is probably going to impact his resolve heavily.
MARTIN: Well, obviously, public opinion doesn't seem to be as relevant to an - you know, an autocratic regime, but what does a path to victory or success look like from the Iranian perspective?
SADJADPOUR: From the Iranian perspective, it's pretty simple, Michel. It's just a war of survival. Henry Kissinger once noted many years ago that whenever a great power is fighting against either guerrilla fighters or an upstart power, for the great power, like the United States, if you don't win outright, you lose, and for the guerrilla fighters or the insurgents, if they don't lose, they win. And so for the Iranian regime, they just want to survive.
MARTIN: And forgive me for asking you to sort of speculate on this, but how - given sort of the current pace of this conflict and everything we know so far, how long can they hold onto that resolve? Recognizing that, as you put it, it's an existential threat to them, but how long can they hold on?
SADJADPOUR: I think, Michel, there's an immediate-term horizon for this regime, which is just to endure this war, but over the medium and long term, I think this is a regime which is in trouble. It's deeply unpopular, it's going to be inheriting a wrecked economy and they don't have really any answers for the enormous popular, political, social and, above all, economic discontent.
MARTIN: That is Karim Sadjadpour. He's a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Karim Sadjadpour, thank you so much.
SADJADPOUR: Thank you, Michel. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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