MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:
Today, Benjamin Netanyahu announced he has ordered his cabinet to open direct negotiations with Lebanon. The Israeli prime minister's order comes as Israel's intense bombing of Lebanon yesterday threatened the fragile ceasefire in the Iran war. Now, whether Israel will stick to that ceasefire and these negotiations now between Israel and Lebanon - they're just a couple of the things I discussed with NPR international correspondent Daniel Estrin and Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman in our weekly national security podcast, Sources & Methods.
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KELLY: Daniel, is Israel satisfied with this ceasefire deal that the U.S. and Iran appear to have struck?
DANIEL ESTRIN, BYLINE: Well, I can tell you, Israel learned about the ceasefire deal shortly before Trump announced it publicly. That's according to a person I spoke to who was briefed on that, and that person spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss all this backdoor negotiating. Israel was kept out of the loop on these negotiations over a war that it started with the U.S.
So was it happy? I think Israel knew it was a matter of time. Israel knew Trump was the decider, and it was up to Trump to decide whether to end this war and when. They knew Trump wanted to end it. And when it became clear that the Iranian regime was not about to collapse, as Israel and Trump had dangled at the very beginning of this war, it became - I think the war became, for Israel, a race against the clock of how much damage can Israel inflict on Iran's capabilities before Trump calls a ceasefire.
KELLY: So how does the current state of play square with Israel's stated ambitions for this war? I mean, to take an obvious example, Iran still has its enriched uranium stockpile. Israel is still not happy about that. I was seeing where Netanyahu - Prime Minister Netanyahu said on TV, Iran's enriched uranium will be removed by agreement or by war. What does that mean?
ESTRIN: I don't think it means Israel will go to war in Iran to remove that enriched uranium. There is no chance. Israel cannot afford to lose Trump support. It cannot afford to launch a war against Iran without Trump support. I think with Netanyahu saying that publicly, that is more Netanyahu trying to influence the negotiations - that he's not in the room to negotiate and to be a part of. He is trying to influence those negotiations through his public posturing. So by stating publicly that this is Israel's top priority, not to leave in Iran this enriched uranium that Trump said on Truth Social could stay in Iran as nuclear dust, he put it. You know, this is material that's supposedly buried under rubble from last year's war with Iran. And...
TOM BOWMAN, BYLINE: And it's not dust. It's a thousand pounds of nuclear material.
ESTRIN: Yeah. Well, is it effectively dust if it stays underground? And that's the question. We've also seen Trump say on Social - on Truth Social that there could be satellite surveillance to make sure that no one touches it. I think by Netanyahu saying that has to leave Iran, he's laying his gun on the table in his red line.
KELLY: And then Iran says the whole Israeli assault on Lebanon is part of this ceasefire. Israel says, no, it isn't. Does that have the potential to torpedo the whole deal?
ESTRIN: Well, you definitely see now - and this is just breaking here - a lot of concern from Germany. Germany's chancellor said so, and other European leaders urging Israel to call it quits with its war in Lebanon. And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just came out with an announcement that he is agreeing to direct negotiations with Lebanon. This is extraordinary. It doesn't mean Israel is announcing a ceasefire, but I think the message is very clear Israel will be ramping down its war in Lebanon. And it will be fascinating to see where this goes because, certainly, Israel's continued fight in Lebanon was putting this whole ceasefire in peril.
KELLY: Daniel, Iran's leaders are spinning this, if anything, as a victory. Explain.
ESTRIN: Everyone is spinning this as a victory - Iran, Israel, Trump. From Iran's perspective, they feel emboldened. This war that started with a call to replace the regime - well, one Khamenei was replaced by another Khamenei. So the regime is still there. It has proven that it can withstand the most powerful army in the world and the most powerful army in the region, Israel. And it discovered the Strait of Hormuz and what havoc it can wreak not only on the Gulf but on the entire globe.
And so this is not a regime that has been brought to its knees, and it knows that. Trump is negotiating with it. And I think it's very clear to all involved that Iran proved that it is a lot more capable than I think Israel and the U.S. expected it to be at the beginning of this war.
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KELLY: NPR international correspondent Daniel Estrin in Tel Aviv. You also heard Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman. We were speaking on NPR's national security podcast, Sources & Methods. And if you want to hear more of that conversation, you can find us wherever you get your podcasts. There's a new episode every Thursday. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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