The U.S. is seeing a nationwide spike in COVID-19 cases this summer, and Pennsylvania is no exception.
Wastewater testing statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show "very high" viral activity in much of the country. Pennsylvania's recorded activity is slightly below that benchmark, being classed only as "high."
For many in the community, this news may confirm what they have been seeing in their own lives, as social media and personal anecdotes suggest the virus has been spreading through workplace and family circles.
In fact, officials now consider it an endemic disease.
Actual tallies of virus cases have become harder to quantify since the national public health emergency ended last year and many tracking programs wound down. Wastewater testing may be an imperfect barometer, but it can detect traces of infectious diseases circulating in a community, CDC says, and provide an early warning on infection trends.
The CDC is recommending everyone ages 6 months and older receive an updated 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine once they become available in the near future, likely in September.
Dr. Stanley Martin, Geisinger's director of infectious diseases, confirmed that the system has been seeing more infections in northeast and central Pennsylvania, although rates of hospitalization and serious illness are lower than in earlier waves.
Martin spoke about the implications of the current uptick, as well as what he believes the public needs to know. Our conversation, edited for length and clarity, follows.
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Q: How does the COVID-19 case spike in Geisinger's coverage area compare with what we are hearing in Pennsylvania as a whole?
A: We have certainly seen an uptick in COVID this summer. Particularly the last month, month-and-a-half. And I don't think what we're seeing at Geisinger is abnormal compared to the rest of the state.
Q: How severe are the cases compared with what we saw at the height of the pandemic?
A: We are nowhere near the levels of what we called surges in the past. We have not seen a huge uptick in hospitalized patients. So right now, we have just a very small number of patients with COVID in our hospital systems throughout Geisinger.
But in the outpatient clinics, if you were to come in with any kind of cold-like symptoms — sore throat, cough, low grade fevers, those kinds of things — the chances that you have COVID are much higher than in the past. I think our test positivity rate right now is about 14% or so in the clinics, but, but we're not seeing anywhere close to that in the hospitals.
Q: I am hearing about many cases among younger adults — including people under 40, and the virus does seem to be making the rounds among people who are out and about and in the workforce. Is that a trend you have noticed?
A: Certainly. In fact, we know that the younger you are, probably the less likely you are to be vaccinated. And that is always going to increase your risk of getting new and recurrent infections.
Q: I am 50 and vaccinated, and I was fighting off a bout last week. My symptoms were a fairly intense fever and chills for a few days, body aches, a little bit of a stomach issue, but none of the respiratory issues that some people have seen. I wonder if that's reflective of what you're seeing out there?
A: We've seen an overall drop in the severity of COVID, and certainly a drop in the COVID mortality rates relative to what they used to be.
Anytime the total number of new infections goes up, we start to see an increase in the number of people who die from COVID. And so we've seen that across the country this summer with the spike that we're seeing.
But if you look at it in terms of overall mortality rates relative to what they were going back four years ago, it is much, much lower. Your risk of winding up in the hospital is dependent on a number of things. And your risk of dying is dependent on a number of things. Probably the biggest risk is, without a doubt, age. So the older you are, the more likely you are to have one of those severe respiratory complications related to COVID. If you're 65 or older, your risk does start to go up. And if you're 80 or older, your risk really skyrockets.
Q: You mentioned something before about folks not being vaccinated for COVID. Are people moving away from doing so?
A: The vaccination rates across the country have declined, and I think there's a number of reasons for that.
In part, a lot of ignorance and misinformation exists when it comes to vaccines in general. But there is, of course, a certain amount of fatigue and confusion — because the vaccine guidelines for COVID have not always been straightforward, right? It's been an evolving picture since day one, and the CDC is trying to move into a more annualized vaccine program, much like we think about flu shots every year.
You know, instead of thinking about it in terms of a booster, it's a new vaccine. It's a novel vaccine geared towards the circulating strains of COVID at that time, not too dissimilar to what we do with influenza every year.
And we anticipate that a new vaccine, an updated vaccine, will be available this fall, probably next month. And so a person could get their flu and COVID shots at the same time.
Q: My last booster was two years ago. What would you recommend generally for those of us whose last shots were some time ago?
A: We certainly would recommend anybody who's six months of age and older to continue to get their flu shot and their COVID vaccine every year.
It's not 100% effective at preventing infection, but what it does do is it goes a really long way at preventing some of those complications.
So if you are 65 and older in particular, and you get your COVID vaccine, although you may still get covid, that infection is much more likely to be very mild, maybe even asymptomatic, and it will prevent you from winding up in the doctor's office or the hospital or even dying by at least 90% or more. So the vaccine is still your best weapon against COVID.
Q: I know things tend to be cyclical, but do we have any sense of why the numbers are spiking around this time. It does seem to be an odd time of year for that.
A: You know, we don't normally associate a lot of respiratory infections with the summertime. We usually think about that during the wintertime, and indeed, we will anticipate seeing a big spike of COVID infections in the wintertime ... likely worse than what we're seeing right now.
The reason this is happening now probably is multifactorial. The virus continues to evolve, and as it evolves, it can sometimes become more contagious and more easy to circulate through the population. We also see, of course, that immunity has started to wane over time, in part because of drop off in vaccinations, and in part, you know, because of previous infections.
In your case, for example, your immunity without having gotten an updated vaccine the last couple years is virtually nil. So it's not a surprise you would have gotten COVID in the last few weeks.
Q: Are there any overarching thoughts you would like to share with the public?
A: I would just reemphasize, at the end of the day, our best tool for preventing COVID and preventing COVID complications is the vaccine. And there will be a new vaccine coming out in the next month or so, and if you're six months of age and older, then you qualify for getting this vaccine.
Even if you are somebody who is young and healthy and you're not particularly worried about your your own health or risk when it comes to COVID, odds are you are around somebody who is — think about your grandma. Think about that older person in line at the grocery store. Think about somebody who has cancer and is undergoing chemotherapy right now, and their immune system is at very high risk for these problems.
If you protect yourself, you are, in fact, protecting them as well.
