MICHELE NORRIS, host:
For more now on the shifting Republican presidential field, we're joined by a veteran Washington Post political reporter Dan Balz. He joins us from Manchester, New Hampshire, where he will be covering the Republican presidential debate.
Welcome back, Dan.
Mr. DAN BALZ (Political Correspondent, Washington Post): Thank you, Michele.
NORRIS: So we just heard about the candidate that's not going to be on the stage there, Fred Thompson. Does his absence on the stage tonight sort of undermine the importance of this debate?
Mr. BALZ: I think it does in some important ways. Everybody knows he's poised to get into this race. As of midnight, he'll be in it. This is a debate in which people will be looking at the other coast as much as they are looking at New Hampshire to see Fred Thompson on the Jay Leno show. And I think that whatever comes out of this debate will be quickly forgotten.
NORRIS: So how does he shift the race? Is he the rescuer that the GOP is looking for as we just heard on Linda's piece?
Mr. BALZ: I think Fred Thompson is a big question mark at this point. Perhaps he's the rescuer. But other people say perhaps he'll turn out to be the Republican version of Wes Clark four years ago who came into the race almost at this exact same moment to considerable hoopla and anticipation and quickly proved that he wasn't quite ready to be a candidate.
Now, Fred Thompson obviously is an experienced politician and Wes Clark wasn't. It may be that he does provide for people what they think is missing with the rest of the field and that he's got a solid conservative record that he can demonstrate to people, and that he's got a winning way on the campaign trail. But we don't know that and we won't know it until he gets in.
NORRIS: An experienced politician who's been testing the waters for quite a long time, so long that you noted in the Post this weekend, that his toes must be wrinkled.
Mr. BALZ: Well, in this period of testing the waters, I think raises many questions as an answer. I mean, there were certain elements of it in which you would say he looked like an appealing candidate. And yet, some of his appearances, including in a recent one at the Iowa State Fair do, I would say, mediocre reviews. And his campaign went through a series of staff changes over the last six weeks that would raise questions about whether they really have a campaign team put together. Getting in in September doesn't leave him much margin of error over the next few months to try to get this campaign running at a very efficient speed very, very quickly.
NORRIS: So this long period of playing footsy with the notion of running for president, is that a smart strategy just so to work out the kings before you step right into the spotlight or has he waited so long with the odds and the dollars are stacked against him?
Mr. BALZ: Well, the dollars are certainly a big issue. We don't quite know what his capacity will be to raise money. And that's an important element. The other is the expectations for Fred Thompson have become very, very high. A lot of people say he is the answer. And when people look at you as the person who's going to be able to save the party, you're expected to perform at a very high level right out of the box. And we'll have to see whether he's capable of doing that.
NORRIS: So Dan, who is the Republican frontrunner? And how do you measure it, money, polls, name recognition, electability?
Mr. BALZ: Well, Michele, there are a lot of ways to measure it. I think this is such an unusual Republican race. Normally, Republicans have an error of apparent. In this case, that has not happened. It has not materialized. So I think what you could safely say is there are two frontrunners. You have a frontrunner in Rudy Giuliani because he has led the national polls of Republicans from the beginning of the year.
And historically, the person who has been the leader in Republican preference polls at this term heading into the next campaign year has always won the nomination since Eisenhower. So you would say, historically, Rudy Giuliani is a frontrunner and he's in pretty good shape. But we know there are real questions about him because of abortion and gay rights and gun rights and other things.
If you look at it from a different perspective, you would say Mitt Romney may be the frontrunner. He is ahead in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. And a person who can win both of those states, which has not been done by any Republican in many, many years, then that person would have a real leg-up on winning the nomination.
So I think what it tells us is that this is a very wide-open race. I don't any of these candidates has really developed the kind of passion, that following that you would like to see if you're heading for the nominations. So I think Fred Thompson comes in at a moment where there's a real opportunity.
NORRIS: Thank you, Dan. Always good to talk to you.
Mr. BALZ: Thank you very much.
NORRIS: That was Dan Balz, political reporter for the Washington Post. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.