STEVE INSKEEP, host:
Its MORNING EDITION from NPR News. Good morning. Im Steve Inskeep.
The best you can say about todays economic news is that it wasnt as bad as expected. The Labor Department released its latest unemployment numbers today. Were going to talk about that in the next few minutes. We are also awaiting a possible statement by President Obama, which we will bring to you if it happens in the next few minutes.
NPRs Yuki Noguchi is here to talk us through the news. Shes in our studios live. Good morning.
YUKI NOGUCHI: Good morning.
INSKEEP: So what happened to the unemployment rate? Thats the easiest number for people to grasp.
NOGUCHI: Well, it rose up just a little bit to 9.6 percent, up from 9.5 percent. But heres what you I mean, like you said, its not terrible news, but its still not great. What you saw was a net loss of 54,000 jobs. Thats half of what was anticipated, so thats good. The other sort of good news is that business hiring was better than just about all projections, so private payroll added 67,000 jobs. But here the qualifier is, you know, thats still less than the previous month and so and its definitely not anywhere near what we need to start a jobs recovery.
INSKEEP: Well, let me make sure that I understand that. When you say private hiring added, even though that means the private sector is actually beginning to add jobs, just not very many if you spread 67,000 jobs across the entire United States. But overall, there are fewer jobs out there. So who is getting rid of people?
NOGUCHI: The government eliminated 114,000 temporary census jobs in a month.
INSKEEP. Oh, okay. All right.
NOGUCHI: So thats where youre finding that. And as you say, you know, a lot rests on this business number. If business hiring doesnt really pick up, you know, three or four times what it was last month, then youre really not going to see a reduction in the jobless rate.
INSKEEP: There was a moment in August when people were wondering if maybe they were not staring into the abyss but edging toward one again, whether there could be a double dip recession, a resumption of the recession. Do these numbers tell us anything about that possibility?
NOGUCHI: Well, the double dip recession, I think, is something that people are still going to be talking about, because, you know, what happens to business hiring in the next few months is really key. You know, weve seen businesses post profits, theyre making money, but theyre not really hiring in a lot of numbers. And the question is, whats going to prompt them to do that? You know, temporary hiring has been up pretty steadily for the last year, and that was through last month.
INSKEEP: Mm-hmm.
NOGUCHI: But usually, what that means is, in the following months, there are permanent hires that come out of that.
INSKEEP: Yeah.
NOGUCHI: We havent really seen that yet. So, you know, the question is, well, at what point will this recovery really stick? And its kind of a cyclical problem because employers are looking the possibility of a double dip and saying, well, were not going to make permanent hires until we see that happen.
INSKEEP: Well, in the past, this has seemed fairly routine, that if something is done in the economy that stimulates more demand, that creates more demand for spending, businesses eventually will make permanent hires in order to meet that demand. Is that still how people are thinking the way this recovery should work?
NOGUCHI: Yeah, I think a lot of economists will say that, because were a consumer-driven economy, you know, two-thirds of the countrys economic output is driven by what people like you and I spend, and so that needs to get going. And the question is, how do you get that going? Some would say more stimulus, more cash in the hands of consumers to spend it. Some would say that business -the government needs to create more incentives for business to start investing in things like plants and technology, and those are things that are going to create new job opportunities.
You know and then I would say that some economists say, you know, itll just self heal. At some point, businesses will realize they need to hire more people in order to grow, and so theyll start to do that.
INSKEEP: David West for The Wall Street Journal has been on this program in the past, in the recent past, talking about the possibility of a structural problem here, that we could just have unemployment for a very long time even as the economy recovers. What would be the costs of that if it happened?
NOGUCHI: Well, you know, some politicians have really raised concern about what the recession has done to the economy in terms of the deficit. Republicans have objected to extending emergency unemployment benefits for that reason. But, you know, in terms of the personal cost, you know, you have still over six million people whove been out of work for over six months. For those people, being out of work for a long time means not being able to, say, pay bills.
INSKEEP: Mm-hmm.
NOGUCHI: And then eventually, you know, theyre at a disadvantage in terms of their wages. You know, it hurts, say, a new graduates ability to make money over a much longer period of time.
INSKEEP: Yuki, thanks very much.
NOGUCHI: Thank you.
INSKEEP: Thats NPRs Yuki Noguchi taking us through the employment numbers today. Again, the unemployment number rose a bit to 9.6 percent. Private sector hiring, though, appears to be up. We are awaiting a statement from President Obama and we can expect to hear that later in the morning. Well bring you up to date later in the morning, or later today, on NPRs ALL THINGS CONSIDERED on many of these same stations. This is an economic story as well as a political one, and much to talk about. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
