In unambiguous language, officials with Republican Dave McCormick’s Senate campaign confidently predicted Thursday a recount will confirm his victory over U.S. Sen. Bob Casey.
“The first thing I want to make clear up front is there is one inescapable truth of all this,” McCormick campaign lead strategist Mark Harris said in a conference call with reporters. “When counting is done, Dave will be winning by tens of thousands of votes. It will not be close ... There is no path for Bob Casey to be leading heading into the recount.”
Second, Harris reminded reporters, statewide recounts never changed the outcome when a candidate led by tens of thousands of votes. On average, recounts change totals by about 100 votes, he said.
“It is the prerogative of Sen. Casey to … pursue a recount, but there is a 0% chance that the outcome of this race is going to change,” Harris said.
In four previous recounts of statewide elections, the outcome stayed the same.
As of 2:30 p.m. Thursday, McCormick led Casey by 27,213 votes, about 2,000 fewer than late Wednesday evening.
It was unclear how many ballots remained uncounted.
As of Tuesday at 5 p.m., the Department of State said the number was about 80,521 -- 60,366 provisional ballots and 20,155 mail-in and absentee ballots.
Harris said that included about 10,000 counted Wednesday and tens of thousands of others that counties found invalid. He estimated only 25,000 to 30,000 valid ballots remain. That would mean almost all have to go to Casey for him to win.
The Washington, D.C.-based publication The Hill’s Decision Desk HQ estimated about 61,000 ballots remained uncounted as of 2:30 p.m. Thursday. Decision Desk declared McCormick the winner at 2:25 p.m. The Associated Press declared McCormick the winner last week.
McCormick campaign officials also questioned what they said were decisions by boards of elections in Philadelphia, Bucks, Montgomery and Centre counties to count ballots that lack properly dated mail-in envelopes.
James Fitzpatrick, the McCormick campaign’s lawyer, said the state Supreme Court and a federal appeals court affirmed this year that state law requires correctly dating mail-in envelopes.
“So, boards of election who intend to count these undated or incorrectly dated mail ballots are in direct violation of Pennsylvania Supreme Court orders and (federal appeals court) law,” Fitzpatrick said.
In a petition filed Thursday morning, McCormick, the Republican National Committee and the state Republican Party asked the state Supreme Court to reaffirm its ruling against counting undated or incorrectly dated mail-in ballot envelopes.
Fitzpatrick also accused the Casey campaign of frequently trying to convince officials in counties “to count the votes of unregistered voters” and wanting to assume control of deciding who’s registered.
Unregistered voters’ ballots cannot count, according to state law.
“This is a totally frivolous and meritless argument,” Fitzpatrick said. “We think this is a totally extreme argument and just very much outside the mainstream. Everyone knows that the boards of election and the state SURE system are the arbiter of who is registered and who is not registered.”
The Casey campaign accused McCormick of hypocrisy because he went to court to count undated mail-in ballots during his 2022 primary election U.S. Senate race. McCormick lost the nomination to Mehmet Oz by 950 votes after one of the four statewide recounts.
“David McCormick’s hypocritical reversal on undated mail ballots is further proof of his determination to disenfranchise Pennsylvania voters while counties continue to count votes in this razor-thin election,” Casey campaign manager Tiernan Donahue said in a statement. “Sen. Casey’s priority continues to be making sure Pennsylvanians’ voices are heard as our democratic process unfolds.”
As proof Casey wanted unregistered voters' ballots counted, the McCormick campaign provided letters the Casey campaign wrote to boards of elections in Lackawanna and Lancaster counties.
The letters challenge the boards’ decisions to reject certain provisional ballots because of secrecy envelope and signature errors. The letters also challenge boards' decisions to reject provisional ballots cast by unregistered voters without taking “additional steps” to confirm registration status.
The letters do not ask the boards to count votes cast by unregistered voters.
“No one is trying to count votes from individuals who were not registered," Casey campaign lawyer Adam Bonin said in a statement. "This is categorically false. This is a blatant attempt by the GOP to lie and distract from their efforts to disenfranchise Pennsylvanians by throwing out votes from registered voters.”
County recounts must begin by Wednesday and must be completed by noon Nov. 26 with results turned into by noon the next day.
