Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly leads former President Donald Trump in the Pennsylvania presidential race by about the same margin as a month ago, a new Franklin & Marshall College poll shows.
Harris had the support 49% of registered voters, Trump, 45%. When voters only leaning toward a candidate are included, Harris’ lead narrowed to 49% vs. 46%, with Trump gaining a point.
In an F&M poll released last month, she led Trump 46% to 43%.
Harris and Trump, both recent visitors to Luzerne County, each led two polls of seven conducted across the state in the last month, according to RealClearPolitics, which compiles polls. They were tied in the others.
The poll surveyed 890 registered voters – 399 Democrats, 366 Republicans and 125 independents. It took place between Sept. 4 and 15 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. That means each percentage could be up to that many points higher or lower.
In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey led former hedge fund manager Dave McCormick, the Republican nominee, 48% to 39%, among registered voters. With leaners included, Casey led 48% to 40%.
Last month, Casey led 48% to 36% among registered voters.
Five of seven polls in the last month had Casey up by 4 to 9 points. The others had the race was tied or had Casey up by a point, according to RealClearPolitics.
Economic issues still dominated when pollsters asked the most important problem facing Pennsylvania today. Almost three in 10 (28%) named the economy or finances as the top issue, more than three times as many as the next highest. Government and politicians were next at almost one in 10 voters (9%). Taxes (7%), education/school (6%), crime/drugs/violence/guns (6%), unemployment/personal finances (4%), immigration (3%), roads/infrastructure/transportation (3%), civil liberties (3%), housing/real estate (3%) and healthcare/insurance (3%) rounded out the top 10.
Economic policies (20%) also topped the list when pollsters asked what factor would be most important in a voter’s mind when deciding whom to back for president.
Franklin & Marshall pollster Berwood Yost said Harris’ standing improved on issues such as character, trustworthiness and being commander-in-chief.
“But the one place that his name remained consistent is that Trump has an advantage dealing with economic matters,” Yost said. “And so, I think that's essentially the story of the remaining electoral contest … Can Trump hold that advantage and maybe expand on it?”
As for other factors determining presidential vote, number two were by honesty/integrity/ good character (10%), a candidate for the people (10%), followed by women’s rights (8%), immigration policies/border control (8%) and agreement policies in general (8%).
Only about four in 10 voters (41%) think the state is headed in the right direction, though that’s up from about a third (32%) in April 2023 three months after Gov. Josh Shapiro took office.
Almost half of voters (48%) still think the state is off on the wrong track, down from almost three in five voters (57%) in April 2023.
Voters generally also think they are financially worse off than a year ago, but are a bit more optimistic about the future.
Only about one in seven voters (14%) said they are better off than a year ago with almost half (46%) saying they are worse off.
Almost a quarter (24%) think they will be better off financially a year from now compared to about one in six (15%) who think they will be worse off.
The poll shows Trump clearly outshines Harris in voters’ minds on the economy. Half (50%) think he’s most prepared to handle the economy while only about two in five (39%) think Harris is.
Trump also has a slight edge, 47%-43%, when voters are asked who will handle the job of commander-in-chief of the military better.
On the question of who best understands the concerns of ordinary Americans, Harris does better, 47%-41%.
On matters such as abortion, same-sex marriage, character, good judgment, honesty and trustworthiness, Harris has huge advantages.
She’s far closer to voters’ views than Trump on values issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage, 51%-37%, character and good judgment to be president, 50%-36%, and honesty and trustworthiness, 48%-32%.
More than half of voters (56%) think Trump’s actions to remain in power after the 2020 election were serious crimes compared to about two in five (39%) who don’t think so.
