Luzerne County has flipped to red.
Long a Democratic stronghold, the county now has more Republican voters, according to statistics released Monday by the Pennsylvania Department of State.
Republicans have 87,415 registered voters, an 83-person lead over the Democrats' 87,332.
But with 203,321 registered voters in the county overall, that leaves 28,574 people who aren't formally committed to either of the major parties: 22,414 with no affiliation, and 6,160 registered with other parties.
While the Republicans' lead may not be substantial, it formalizes a shift underway for more than a decade. Despite a substantial Democratic registration advantage, Republican Donald Trump carried the county in his 2016 and 2020 presidential races.
Luzerne County Republican Party Chairman Gene Ziemba credited volunteers and groups for outreach efforts that helped flip the county.
"There has been a lot of grassroots work being done by people, individuals, literally, one neighbor at a time," Ziemba said.
Ziemba, elected party chairman in July, also cited the work of Luzerne County Republicans, a local conservative voters group; as well as conservative activist Scott Pressler's Early Vote Action PAC.
Luzerne County Democratic Chairman Thomas Shubilla said he didn't see the result as fixed.
"I have a feeling that those numbers will go back and forth for a little while, periodically," Shubilla said, adding that the shift is "a symbolic victory," but not the end of the battle.
"I think this will probably create a fire under our volunteers to get more registrants on our side," he added. "It's certainly not for lack of trying. We have a lot of great volunteers."
Historic shifts
The last time Luzerne County had more Republicans than Democrats for a presidential election was Nov. 5, 1968: 97,184 Republicans to 77,571 Democrats, according to the Pennsylvania Manual of the time. Voters nationwide elected Richard Nixon president by a narrow margin against Vice President Hubert Humphrey, who won Pennsylvania and Luzerne.
By 1972, two years before Nixon resigned because of Watergate, the numbers had already flipped dramatically. For the Nov. 7, 1972, presidential election, Luzerne Democrats outnumbered Republicans, 89,69 to 77,432, according to another Pennsylvania Manual from that era. Still more Republican in 1968, Pennsylvania also flipped to Democratic in voter registration in 1972, but Nixon won the state and Luzerne anyway by landslide margins.
Democrats' Luzerne majority peaked in November 2009, when there were 113,013 registered Democrats and 61,909 registered Republicans in the county, a difference of 51,104.
In that landscape, the county twice voted for Democrat Barack Obama. But the arrival of Donald Trump sharply reversed the Democratic advantage.
By November 2015, the Democrats' edge had slipped to 44,655, with 107,018 to the Republicans' 62,363.
The shift gathered steam, with the Democrats holding a lead of just 19,992 on Election Day 2020.
Four years later, that lead has been completely erased.
Shubilla said the Democrats will be focused not just on registering voters, but on ensuring registered Democrats turn out to vote.
He also predicted that split-ticket voting will continue to be a factor in Luzerne County.
"Two years ago, we certainly saw Gov. (Josh) Shapiro win the county, and Sen. (John) Fetterman lose the county. Right there you have a split-ticket," Shubilla said.
He predicted this election could see Luzerne County voters choosing to support incumbent Democrats Sen. Bob Casey and Rep. Matt Cartwright, but also vote for Trump.
Shubilla also sees promise in the number of independent voters — many of them young people who are broadly supportive of Democratic policies but who shun party labels.
Ziemba was enthusiastic Monday, but said Republicans need to maintain the momentum.
"What do we do until Nov. 5? Keep grinding," he said. "We are not looking to win. We are looking for a landslide."
Ziemba senses such a victory is in reach, and his county could be critical to securing it.
"Luzerne County is the 12th most populous county in the state," Ziemba said. "We're going to win the state for Mr. Trump. And we know how as Pennsylvania goes, so goes the election."
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story incorrectly said 1972 was the last presidential election with more Republican voters than Democratic in Luzerne County.
