The last time U.S. Sen. Bob Casey ran for re-election, President Donald Trump dubbed him as “Sleeping Bob.”
The nickname never stuck, and “Sleeping Bob” walloped Trump’s favored son in that 2018 election, U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta, the anti-illegal immigration former Hazleton mayor.
The only thing sleepy about the Scranton Democrat’s first three Senate campaigns was the outcome. They all turned into snoozers.
Casey beat U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum in 2006 by 17.4 percentage points, businessman Tom Smith in 2012 by 9.1, and Barletta by 13.1.
No snoozer this time.
If Casey defeats Republican hedge fund manager Dave McCormick to win a fourth, six-year term Tuesday, he’ll barely squeak by if polling holds true.
“Oh, I think this could be a one-to-two-point race, both our race and the presidential,” Casey said after a rally Wednesday with actor Martin Sheen at PNC Field in Moosic, Lackawanna County.
As of Friday, the poll-tracking political website RealClearPolitics showed Casey up 2.4 points on average. He’s led or been tied against McCormick in all but one poll since late September, but his lead has sharply narrowed. Some recent polls show a tie, others Casey 2 or 3 points ahead. In his previous races, Casey’s final RealClearPolitics polling average lead was at least 5.4 points.
Spending on advertising in the race has been record-setting: $345.7 million with $169.3 million by Casey and outside groups supporting him, and $176.4 million by McCormick and his outside supporters, according to National Public Radio. Democrats need a Casey victory to have any hopes of keeping control of the Senate.
At Lackawanna County Republican headquarters in Scranton recently, McCormick, 59, a Pittsburgh resident, shook hands, hugged and posed for selfies with supporters gathered to meet him and congressional candidate Rob Bresnahan.
The Casey campaign or Democratic outside groups have targeted McCormick’s wealth, his years living in Connecticut, his business ties and investments in China and his general opposition to abortion rights.
McCormick has narrowed Casey’s lead despite that.
The Scranton gathering included JoAnne Mayer, 55, of Jessup, who owns Clarky’s Billiards in Scranton. She’s a former Libertarian who voted twice for Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Trump for president. Wearing a “Make America Great Again” hat and sporting a “45” tattoo on her left arm, she thinks McCormick and Trump can fix the biggest problem facing the country.
“The biggest problem I think our country faces right now is the security of our border,” Mayer said. “I'm worried about saving our republic … I'm worried about the future of my adult children. I have six grandchildren, 19 to 2 years old, and I'm worried about their security and their future and their finances as well.”
In an interview after greeting supporters, McCormick, who lost the 2022 Republican Senate primary to Mehmet Oz by 950 votes, tied Casey to Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. He accused her of favoring a fracking ban, mandatory buybacks of guns, elimination of private health insurance and defunding the police.
“Bob Casey is a sure vote for the policy of Kamala Harris,” McCormick said.
Harris, a former California attorney general, no longer favors a fracking ban or eliminating private health insurance, owns a gun and favors banning assault weapons and never said she favors defunding the police.
Casey never supported a fracking ban, eliminating private health insurance or defunding police, but favors banning assault weapons.
McCormick said voters have seen beyond the election attacks, realized he grew up in Bloomsburg, graduated from West Point and succeeded in business.
Compare that, he said, to “a guy who's a career politician and been in elected office for 30 years, the Senate for 18 years, and has really been a weak voice.”
“He can't find anything he's really done meaningfully, but he's voted time and again with the Biden-Harris administration,” he said. “That's at a moment where it's a change election. Most Pennsylvanians think we're on the wrong track … I'm the change candidate, and he's the status quo candidate.”
Voters don’t care about his success as a businessman, he said.
“I've been successful. I'm proud of it. I've been lucky. But when I'm on the campaign trail, I have never met anybody, even people don't want to vote for me, who really deeply resent my success,” he said. “They just want success to be available for their kids and everybody else … Anti-success is anti-American.”
At a rally Wednesday with actor Martin Sheen at PNC Field in Moosic, which borders Scranton, Casey said the race represents a clear choice between a candidate who delivers for Pennsylvanians – him – and one who delivers for China – McCormick.
Asked why the race is so close if the choice is clear, Casey points to the spending by outside groups funded by billionaires and backing McCormick.
“I've been outspent before, but the volume is pronounced here,” he told reporters. “But look, they're supporting him because they know he's going to vote for their billionaire tax cuts.”
The talk with reporters was the usual, calmer Casey.
On the stump, Casey has projected a more aggressive demeanor in this campaign than earlier ones. He didn’t hold back in Moosic.
He ripped into McCormick with many of the same attacks heard before, but also portrayed himself as a senator who has delivered for all 67 counties. He focused on President Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan.
Congressional Democrats passed the plan in March 2021 without a single Republican vote, but McCormick has blamed it for contributing to inflation.
“Education was part of the American Rescue Plan,” Casey said. “So, when we brought to Lackawanna and Luzerne County schools -- just two counties -- $200 million, not a single Republican vote. My opponent in this race has been trashing me for voting for that legislation. So, his position on that investment in our schools in Lackawanna County and Luzerne County wasn't $200 million, it was zero. Just like everybody in his party, that's what he thought our schools were worth here. Zero.”
McCormick, he said, opposed the child tax credit, which lifted millions of Americans out of poverty.
“Well, he doesn't understand our state. He's been in Connecticut too long to understand what our children need, what our schools need, what our businesses need, and what our Commonwealth needs, and on election night, he's going to find out that we're going to send him back to Connecticut,” Casey said.
His audience included Lily Opshinsky, 21, a food pantry coordinator from Scranton and a Democrat, who will vote in a presidential election for the first time.
“I think that he is a wonderful proponent for people … who have need, and people who collectively have a voice, but individually don't,” Opshinsky said. “He is fighting for workers’ rights, and … he is fighting for women, and that he is fighting for all of these issues that I do care about.”
