What may become the most expensive presidential election campaign in the nation’s history ends Tuesday with voters casting ballots in races so close that only one thing is certain so far.
On Election Day, the deluge of television, radio, social media and print advertising will end and allow people like Judy Zabel to watch TV uninterrupted again.
“Oh, my, I am so ready (for no more ads),” said Zabel, 78, of Jermyn in Lackawanna County, who otherwise had a lot of fun volunteering on Republican campaigns. “I don't look at ads. In fact, I turn my TV off when the ads come on, because most of them aren't honest.”
The ads explain why this election is approaching the most expensive ever. Advertising costs a lot of money.
OpenSecrets, a non-profit campaign money-tracking organization based in Washington, D.C., recently predicted the total cost of the 2024 federal election alone could hit $15.9 billion, $700 million more than 2020, the current record holder.
Record spending in Pa.
Unlike in many uncompetitive states, campaign cash has flowed freely in swing states, especially in Pennsylvania.
So far, candidates and other groups have spent almost $1.2 billion on advertising in all races in Pennsylvania. That’s not only a state record, but the first time a single state exceeded $1 billion, according to National Public Radio, WVIA’s parent network.
That total embraces all races, but the bigger spending includes the presidential race between former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee; the U.S. Senate race between Democratic Sen. Bob Casey of Scranton and Republican former hedge fund manager Dave McCormick of Pittsburgh; the 8th Congressional District contest between six-term incumbent Rep. Matt Cartwright, a Moosic Democrat, and construction and traffic signal companies owner and CEO Rob Bresnahan, a Dallas Township Republican; and the 7th Congressional District battle between Democratic Rep. Susan Wild and Republican state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, both of whom live in Lehigh County.
'A generational decision'
Each of these races, and others, will play a role – perhaps a decisive one -- in determining whether Republicans or Democrats control the White House, Congress and the state General Assembly.
In his Oct. 21 visit to Wilkes-Barre, second gentleman Doug Emhoff, a lawyer, captured the election’s importance in words that both major parties’ candidates have echoed.
“Kamala has said this time and time again: this is not just the most important election of our lifetime, this is the most important election of our nation's history,” Emhoff told a King’s College audience. “This is going to determine our future, my kids’ future, hopefully our grandkids future. I mean, this is a generational decision right here. And you and your neighbors in this state can actually dictate the direction of our country.”
At an Aug. 17 rally at Mohegan Arena in Wilkes-Barre Twp., Trump phrased the sentiment similarly but in his unique style.
“We're run by stupid people, and we have to change it, or we're not going to have a country left,” he said.
Pennsylvania voters also will elect a new state attorney general, a state auditor general and treasurer, but the presidential, U.S. Senate and congressional races remain the most consequential.
Trump-Harris
Over and over, candidates, their surrogates or experts have suggested whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the presidency.
It is a fact that no Democrat has won the White House without winning the presidency since Vice President Harry S. Truman in 1948. In 2016, when Trump became the first Republican to win the state since Vice President George H.W. Bush in 1988, he won the election.
Polls show an extremely tight contest in the Keystone State. The polling average calculated by RealClearPolitics, which tracks polls, shows Trump up by 0.3 percentage points as of Friday. He’s led twice as many polls here than Harris since late September and almost all of them lately, but the margins were one, two or three percentage points.
Charlie Gerow, a Harrisburg-based Republican strategist and Trump adviser, pointed to early voting trends showing far more Republican mail-in ballots than 2020 and narrowing Democratic voter registration margins.
“I think he's going to win, and I think he's going to win by a comfortable margin, maybe not handily, but certainly comfortable,” Gerow said.
J.J. Balaban, a Democratic campaign commercial producer, dismissed Gerow’s reasoning. Voter registration shifts usually lag actual voting trends and Pennsylvania generally has “wildly competitive” statewide races despite having more Democrats, he said.
Balaban did not predict a Harris victory, but said a Democrat has won every presidential race here since 1992 except for Trump in 2016.
“Now that doesn't mean that Donald Trump can't win in 2024 but … you'd rather be the Democratic nominee for president than the Republican nominee for president,” he said. “I think all the evidence seems to be that the race is very close, and it's possible that either candidate will win.”
The two sides have spent $592.1 million in advertising on the race in Pennsylvania alone -- $319.8 on the Democratic side, $271.3 million on the Republican, according to NPR.
Casey-McCormick
In the Senate race, RealClearPolitics shows Casey up 2.4 points on average. He’s led or been tied against McCormick in all but one poll since late September, though his lead has sharply narrowed.
In his three previous races, Casey’s final RealClearPolitics polling average lead was at least 5.4 points. It was 14.3 points in 2018 against U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta of Hazleton.
The Casey campaign or Democratic outside groups have targeted McCormick’s wealth, his years living in Connecticut, his business connections in China and his general opposition to abortion rights. McCormick has narrowed Casey’s lead despite that.
“Why is an 18-year incumbent, the senior senator from the most important state in the country running a campaign that's trying to tear down the challenger, as opposed to run on the great benefit he's brought to Pennsylvanians,” McCormick said in an Oct. 25 interview in Scranton. “I think people recognize that it's because his track record has been (so) weak that he's attacking me.”
At a rally Wednesday in Lackawanna County with actor Martin Sheen, Casey portrayed the race as a clear choice between a senator who delivers for his state and “a hedge fund manager delivering for China.”
He attributed the tightness of the race to the onslaught of ads against him funded by billionaires contributing to three political action committees that can accept unlimited individual contributions.
“They know I'll vote against their billionaire tax cuts, and they know that he is committed to that, that big tax cut for big corporations and billionaires,” he said.
The advertising spending totals $345.7 million -- $169.3 million on the Democratic side, $176.4 million on the Republican.
Congressional races
The 8th Congressional District race pits Cartwright, a six-term incumbent, against Bresnahan, an election rookie.
The lone public poll, released by Inside Elections, an independent congressional race tracking newsletter, had Cartwright ahead 50% to 43%. The poll was conducted Oct. 23-25, after their lone debate and surveyed 406 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Bresnahan campaign manager Derek Rockey called the poll “garbage” because, he says, it failed to include enough past Trump voters.
Wild, a four-term incumbent, has led all four of the publicly available polls, with a 6-point lead in the most recently released in early October.
Gerow said the Cartwright-Bresnahan and Wild-Mackenzie races could help decide House control.
“Those House races are particularly important because the Republicans need to maintain control of the House, and they've got to pick up a couple of seats here and there to make up for some of the losses that they may encounter (in other states),” Gerow said.
Democrats need Cartwright and Wild to win, hold all their other seats and flip four to win the House majority. Republicans view both seats as prime pickup opportunities.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Speaker Mike Johnson have visited both districts to either rally support or raise money for Bresnahan and Mackenzie.
In an exclusive interview with WVIA News during his latest visit Wednesday, Scalise said Republicans hope to expand their House majority.
“And of course, this district is a seat we have a great opportunity to flip from Democrat to Republican, because we got a great candidate in Rob Bresnahan,” he said.
Cartwright, the only House Democrat to win four times in a district that Trump won, declined to call himself worried about possibly losing.
“I learned this as a lawyer, that the way you get rid of the jitters is you prepare and prepare and prepare as best you can, you work as hard as you can, so that you know you left nothing on the field,” he said. “And if you lost, well, it's not because you didn't try.”
Total advertising spending in both races is about the same, $35.2 million in the 7th district (Democratic: $21.8 million, R: $13.4 million) and $35.6 million (Democratic: $19.8 million, Republican: $15.9 million).
State House races
A pair of northeast Pennsylvania state representative races may help determine who controls the state House where Democrats own a one-vote majority now.
No public polling exists, but both parties have poured in hundreds of thousands of dollars to win them.
One is the 118th district race between first-term incumbent Rep. Jim Haddock, a Pittston Township Democrat, and doctoral degree candidate McKayla Kathio, of Jenkins Township. The district covers part of western Lackawanna County and part of northern Luzerne County.
The other is the 121st district race between nine-term incumbent Rep. Eddie Day Pashinski, a Wilkes-Barre Democrat, and Dino Disler, a Republican cleaning company owner from Laurel Run. The district includes Wilkes-Barre and surrounding areas.
Most of the money fueling Kathio’s and Disler’s bids has come from the state Republican Party and Commonwealth Leaders Fund, a conservative PAC heavily funded by billionaire school-choice advocate Jeffrey Yass.
The state Democratic Party and the House Democratic Campaign Committee have weighed in heavily for Pashinski and Haddock.
Polls open at 7 a.m. Tuesday and close at 8 p.m. Mail-in ballots must be received by local election bureaus by 8 p.m. Tuesday to count.
