The costliest U.S. midterm election campaign in history concludes Tuesday with Pennsylvania voters’ choices for governor, the state General Assembly and Congress potentially altering the state and nation’s political landscape.
Again.
Spending on congressional elections across the nation alone has topped $11 billion, more than $2 billion more than the second-highest midterm, 2022, according to opensecrets.org, which tracks state and federal campaign spending.
The costly races that could contribute to altered landscapes include congressional and state House and Senate races in Northeast Pennsylvania.
Polls show an electorate angered and unnerved by higher gas, utility, health care and grocery prices and blaming President Donald Trump, whose approval ratings have hit historic lows.
Seeking the Senate and a trifecta
Gov. Josh Shapiro, far ahead of Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity in polling in the governor race, wants a second four-year term but is also aggressively pursuing a Democratic trifecta that will give his party control of the state House and Senate for the first time since March 1994.
Democrats control the House by a 103-100 margin, but Republicans lead in the Senate by 27-23.
Flipping the Senate would require Democrats keeping the seats they hold and winning at least two Republican seats, which would create a tie and allow Democratic Lt. Gov. Austin Davis to break ties.
“I don't have access to the polling on the individual races, but it's coming down to a handful of races, and they all ... seem like they're close,” former state Treasurer and U.S. Sen. Bob Casey said.
Republican political consultant Charlie Gerow, a former governor candidate who accurately predicted President Trump would comfortably win Pennsylvania in 2024, said Democrats won’t win the Senate.
Republicans will reclaim a Lancaster County that Democratic Sen. James Malone won in a special election last year, Gerow said.
“That's one prediction I will make,” Gerow said.
If that happens, Democrats will have to win three of the other four contested Senate seats that both sides have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to win.
“Precisely, and that's just not likely to happen,” Gerow said. “When we come back in January, the Republicans will still control the Senate, and ... the Democrats are likely to still control the House.”
In a July interview, state Democratic Party Eugene DePasquale predicted the opposite after Lackawanna County Party Democrats elected a new chairperson.
"I believe we will win the state Senate," DePasquale said.
"We want to make sure that we get Gov. Shapiro more allies in Harrisburg."
One of the four competitive Senate seats is in the northeast. Sen. Rosemary Brown, a Monroe County Republican, faces Brian Wrightson, a Lackawanna County Democrat. The 40th Senate District includes parts of Luzerne and Monroe counties.
Both candidates and outside groups have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars combined on the race.
Two other Senate races in the region are also on the ballot. In the 20th Senate District, longtime incumbent Sen. Lisa Baker faces Democrat Jackie Baker. In the 22nd Senate District, Sen. Marty Flynn, a Democrat, faces Republican Sharon Soltis Sparano.
Results could shape Shapiro's future
For Shapiro, Democratic Senate control could not only allow him to pursue long-desired priorities – a higher minimum wage, legalization and taxation of marijuana, allowing victims to sue over sexual abuse for a longer period – but could also propel his long-suspected aspirations for the presidency in 2028. Shapiro has already formed a federal political action committee meant to help Democratic congressional candidates.
Gerow doubts a trifecta will boost Shapiro's aspirations.
“Josh Shapiro's presidential ambitions are largely lodged in his own head. If you look at any of the national polling or any of the national discussions about Democrat candidates across the country, Josh Shapiro is in the lower tier, and he'll remain there,” Gerow predicted.
Shapiro has deflected all questions about a presidential bid. So did Casey.
“I think he would be a great candidate, but I'm going to wait until 2026 is over,” he said.
State House Elections
In the state House, 26 seats are on the ballot in Northeast and Northcentral Pennsylvania. Republicans are trying to flip at least two seats to regain control for the first time since 2022.
In this region, Republicans are trying hardest to flip the Wilkes-Barre-based state 121st House District seat that opened up because 20-year Rep. Eddie Day Pashinski, a Democrat, announced his retirement.
Wilkes-Barre Councilperson Jessica McClay, a Democrat, faces Republican information technology company executive Michael Harostock. McClay has raised five times more money.
A potential indicator of competitive races is money raised. In this region, Democratic and Republican candidates have raised substantial amounts of money (more than $100,000 combined) in races for the 109th House District in Columbia County; the 118th House District in Luzerne and Lackawanna counties; the 120th House District in Luzerne; and the 176th and 189th House districts in Monroe County. A full list of the candidates in all northeast and northcentral state legislative races is at the end of this story.
Congress up for grabs
Four hotly contested Congressional seats in the eastern half of the state could go a long way toward influencing whether Democrats regain control of the U.S. House for the first time since President Joe Biden took office in 2021.
Republicans control the House by a 218-214 margin with one independent (a former Republican) and two vacancies (one seat formerly held by a Democrat, one by a Republican).
Two of the four highly competitive congressional races are in the northeast. One is the 8th Congressional District matchup between U.S. Rep. Rob Bresnahan, a Republican, and Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti, a Democrat. The other is the Lehigh Valley-based 7th Congressional District contest between U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, a Republican, and retired firefighter Bob Brooks, a Democrat.
Casey, who won his Senate seat in the 2006 wave election that shifted control of both houses of Congress to Democrats, said this election has dynamics similar to that one, including an unpopular president. Democrats picked up 31 House seats and five Senate seats then and won control of both houses.
“I would say though that it's harder for either party to gain the kind of seats that you could gain 20, 30 years ago because of how polarized the country is,” Casey said. “There are just fewer voters in the middle that could swing as widely as they used to.”
He thinks Democrats will win control of the House.
“I just don't know how many seats. And the Senate seems like just a big toss-up at this stage,” he said.
Pennsylvania does not have a U.S. Senate race this year, so whether Republicans lose Senate control depends on elections in other states.
Democrats controlled both houses of Congress for 46 of 48 years between 1933 and 1981, but the parties have swapped control of one chamber or the other and sometimes both pretty regularly since.
Ballot questions
In five counties, voters will answer questions on tax hikes, government panel expansions and ethics.
CARBON: In Kidder Twp., voters will decide whether to raise the tax that supports the ambulance and rescue squad from 1.3 to 2 mills.
LACKAWANNA: Countywide, voters will decide whether to amend the home rule charter to prohibit county elected officials and employees from using inside information to trade stocks or place bets in prediction markets.
In Carbondale, voters will decide whether the mayor, when also employed as city managing director, should be exempt from a restriction requiring a leave of absence while campaigning for elected office.
In Scott Twp., voters will decide whether to impose a 0.065-mill property tax to support ambulance and emergency medical technician services serving the township.
LUZERNE: Countywide, voters will decide whether to amend the home rule charter to prohibit county elected officials and employees from using inside information to trade stocks or place bets in prediction markets.
In Dallas, Jenkins and Sugarloaf townships, voters will decide whether to add two seats to the township board of supervisors.
In Hazleton, voters will decide whether to adopt a revised home rule charter.
LYCOMING: In Wolf Twp., voters will decide whether to add two seats to the township board of supervisors.
PIKE: In Westfall Twp., voters will decide whether to increase property taxes by 3 mills to provide enhanced emergency medical services.
Here is the complete list of the candidates in state and federal races in northeast and northcentral Pennsylvania on the ballot Tuesday. The counties in each district are listed after the district number.
Pennsylvania House
DISTRICT 68 (Bradford/Tioga):
Republican: Rep. Clint Owlett
Democratic: Quentin Joseph Gee
DISTRICT 76 (Clinton/Union)
Republican: Rep. Stephanie Borowicz
Democratic: Sara Eggler
DISTRICT 83 (Lycoming/Union)
Republican: Rep. Jamie Flick
Democratic: None
DISTRICT 84 (Lycoming/Sullivan)
Republican: Rep. Joe Hamm, Hepburn Twp., Lycoming
Democratic: None
DISTRICT 85 (Union, Snyder, Mifflin and Juniata)
Republican: Rep. David Rowe
Democratic: None
DISTRICT 107 (Northumberland/Schuylkill)
Republican: Rep. Joanne Stehr
Democratic: Ryan Coleman
DISTRICT 108 (Montour/Northumberland)
Republican: Rep. Michael Stender
Democratic: Amber Neidig
DISTRICT 109 (Columbia)
Republican: Rep. Robert Leadbeter III
Democratic: Mayor Justin Hummel
DISTRICT 110 (Bradford/Wyoming)
Republican: Rep. Tina Pickett
Democratic: Pamela Hemann
DISTRICT 111 (Susquehanna/Wayne)
Republican: Rep. Jonathan Fritz
Democratic: Kyle T. Devlin
DISTRICT 112 (Lackawanna)
Democratic: Rep. Kyle Mullins
Republican: Joseph J. Sabia Jr.
DISTRICT 113 (Lackawanna)
Democratic: Rep. Kyle Donahue
Republican: Lucas O’Brien
DISTRICT 114 (Lackawanna)
Democratic: Rep. Bridget Kosierowski
Republican: Robert Logan Lombardo
DISTRICT 115 (Monroe)
Democratic: Rep. Maureen Madden
Republican: Richard Szabo
DISTRICT 116 (Luzerne/Schuylkill)
Republican: Rep. Dane Watro Jr
Democratic: None
DISTRICT 117 (Luzerne)
Republican: Rep. Jamie Walsh
Democratic: Jeremy Benscoter
DISTRICT 118 (Luzerne/Lackawanna)
Democratic: Rep. Jim Haddock
Republican: John F. Lombardo
DISTRICT 119 (Luzerne)
Republican: Rep. Alec Ryncavage
Democratic: Lauren McCurdy
DISTRICT 120 (Luzerne)
Republican: Rep. Brenda Pugh
Democratic: Fern Leard
DISTRICT 121 (Luzerne)
Democratic: Jessica McClay
Republican: Michael D. Harostock III
DISTRICT 122 (Carbon)
Republican: Rep. Doyle Heffley
Democratic: Christian Bartulovich
DISTRICT 123 (Schuylkill)
Republican: Rep. Tim Twardzik
Democratic: John A. Deatrich Jr.
DISTRICT 124 (Berks/Schuylkill)
Republican: Rep. Jamie Barton
Democratic: Tina Burns
DISTRICT 139 (Wayne/Pike)
Republican: Rep. Jeffrey Olsommer
Democratic: Dominique N. Azzollini
DISTRICT 176 (Monroe)
Republican: Rep. Jack Rader Jr.
Democratic: Thomas Kucer
DISTRICT 189 (Monroe/Pike)
Democratic: Rep. Tarah Probst
Republican: Danica Hartenfels
Pennsylvania Senate
DISTRICT 20 (Luzerne/Pike/Susquehanna/Wayne/Wyoming)
Republican: Sen. Lisa Baker
Democratic: Jackie Baker
DISTRICT 22 (Lackawanna/Luzerne)
Democratic: Sen. Marty Flynn
Republican: Sharon Soltis Sparano
DISTRICT 40 (Lackawanna/Monroe)
Republican: Sen. Rosemary Brown
Democratic: Brian Wrightston
United States House
DISTRICT 7 (Monroe/Northampton/Lehigh)
Republican: Rep. Ryan Mackenzie
Democratic: Bob Brooks
DISTRICT 8 (Lackawanna/Luzerne/Monroe/Pike/Wayne)
Republican: Rep. Rob Bresnahan
Democratic: Mayor Paige Cognetti
DISTRICT 9 (Luzerne/Berks/Bradford/Columbia/Lebanon/Luzerne/ Lycoming/Montour/Northumberland/Schuylkill/Sullivan/Susquehanna/Wyoming)
Republican: U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser
Democratic: Rachel Wallace
DISTRICT 15 (Armstrong/Cameron/Centre/Clarion/Clearfield/Clinton/Elk/Forest/Indiana/Jefferson/Lycoming/McKean/Potter/Snyder/Tioga/Union/Venango/Warren)
Republican: Rep. Glenn Thompson
Democratic: Ray Bilger
