Consumers concerned about the rising prices of basic goods and services can add another category to the list as Halloween approaches.
Candy, like so much else, will cost more this spooky season. But as University of Scranton professor Iordanis Petsas and others explain, tariffs are only part of the equation.
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Candy and chewing gum prices jumped 8.1% since last year, according to data from the U.S. Consumer Price Index analyzed by statistics website Statista, with candy prices alone rising 3.4% in the same timeline.
Rising overall costs for ingredients, poor harvests and supply chain expenses are contributing to rising Halloween candy prices said Petsas, the university's chair of economics, finance, and international business.
“Chocolate is a good example because cocoa is primarily grown not in the United States but in other parts of the world," he said. "When we import these ingredients or packaging, they become more expensive. The candy manufacturers may have to raise the prices in order to cover those costs."
What are tariffs?
Tariffs are government-imposed taxes on imported goods and raw materials.
They create revenue for the government and are often promoted as a means of increasing domestic production. But they also drive up costs for companies that import goods and the consumers who buy them.
The Tax Foundation, a tax policy nonprofit, estimates President Donald Trump’s tariffs will increase taxes by an average of more than $800 per household in 2026.
The Supreme Court deemed Trump’s sweeping tariffs unconstitutional in a February ruling, limiting their breadth, but Trump responded with more that are still in place.
“The bottom line is that firms [and] businesses will face higher costs to import the inputs they need to make the products. Families can also feel the impact of these tariffs in their everyday budgets, especially those that are struggling to make ends meet,” Petsas said.
Tariffs vary depending on the item that is being imported, where it is being imported from and the demand and supply chain for the item.
Cocoa pricing, tariffs and other expenses
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, tariffs and supply chain issues both played a role in the recent cocoa price increases, as production in cocoa grinding has begun to decline.
"Extreme weather conditions and logistical issues" over the course of several years have affected key sugar- and cocoa-producing countries, the BLS said, including Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, India, Thailand and Mexico.
In turn, cocoa production is gradually slowing down, making chocolate more expensive.
According to the BLS, countries that regulate their cocoa industries purchase contracts a year in advance, relying on harvest projections.
"When there are supply shortages, this sales and distribution system can break down," BLS said.
Dealers may respond by offering farmers higher prices than the government-set contracts as supply tightens, and may sell those beans to processors or global traders in unregulated countries. This also contributes to higher prices for consumers.
For U.S. consumers, tariffs only add to the cost.
Petsas explained how Ecuador, a key cocoa-producing country, faces a tariff of about 50% on cocoa for suppliers who sell to the United States.
“Even a small increase per bag can make a noticeable difference when you're buying several bags at once. In general, I think we need to be more cautious about tariffs and the effects of tariffs on chocolate and cocoa.” Petsas said.
Tariffs also target items that are also used as packaging materials for candy, like aluminum foil, Petsas said.
“We import aluminum foil, so even that faces substantial tariffs between 80% and over 100%," he said.
Advice for consumers: Set a budget, shop for deals
Consumers can implement budgets to manage price increases.
One area candy store has managed not to do so for the past two years.
Pamela Dennis, a manager at Victoria’s Candies in Edwardsville, said the shop has maintained reasonable prices for their consumers.
“Our chocolates are delicious; they've not changed in recipe, and we see a greater influx of business, probably because of everyone overpricing,” Dennis said.
Dennis also said their chocolates are of value in comparison to other competitors due to increased prices.
And Petsas said that price increases across the spectrum have become more noticeable as they impact everyday expenses.
“You go out, you pay at the register. You don't really realize what is expensive. You might notice, 'I spent $100 last week, and now I'm spending like $120.' But if I ask you why you paid $120 this week and last week you paid $100, you might not know the answer because when you go to a grocery store, you don't buy one single thing,” Petsas said.
“You don't really pay attention to the prices because if eggs go up by 10 cents, you might not even notice. But when you go up to the gas station to pump gas, you know at that point that you are just buying one product,” Petsas said.
Petsas said prices will remain unpredictable as trade policies continue to change. But holiday sales can help families cope with high prices — for Halloween and beyond.
“You don't buy Halloween candy, like all year round. But we can set a budget ahead of time and start shopping early for deals that can also help. We don't have to spend a lot of money to make a holiday special,” Petsas said.
