If Pennsylvania voters found the May 19 primary election a bit dull because of a lack of competitive races, get ready for a multi-dimensional November general election full of bruising battles.
This year alone, election fights across the state, including its northeast region, could play a role in determining control of the U.S. House and the nation’s next presidency, not to mention control of the state House and Senate and the Governor’s Mansion.
In what most analysts view as a midterm election cycle that favors Democrats, state Democrats see opportunities to help the party win back control of the U.S. House, regain control of the state Senate for the first time in more than 30 years, perhaps expand state House control and boost Gov. Josh Shapiro’s expected bid for the presidency.
“We went from the epicenter of American politics in 2024 to a new version of that in 2026 and likely a repeat in 2028 where all signs point to Pennsylvania once again being at the very heart of swing states in the country,” said Chris Borick, a political science professor and director of the Institute of Public Opinion at Muhlenberg College.
Of course, that will mean candidates and outside groups spending tens of millions of dollars on television, radio and other media to woo voters.
"If you're bored, wait six months, it'll change," Republican political consultant Chris Nicholas said. "We will again — the airwaves here in Harrisburg and Philadelphia and Scranton — be the talk of the town, right? All those TV stations are going to make coin."
The hot congressional races
The most campaign money will likely focus on congressional races because Democrats want to check President Donald Trump's power and Republicans want to stop them. At best, Republicans enjoy a one-vote margin in the U.S. House when all seats are filled (five are vacant so Republicans have a 217-213 majority now).
Pennsylvania has four House race considered highly competitive:
- 8th Congressional District: Incumbent Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan vs. Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti. Both were unopposed. Bresnahan received 37,971 votes, Cognetti, 58,415.
- 7th Congressional District: Incumbent Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie vs. retired firefighter Bob Brooks, who won a four-way Democratic Party primary last week. Brooks had 28,078 votes; former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell, 14,576; former Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure, 13,676; and Carol Obando-Derstine, a former district office manager for U.S. Sen. Bob Casey and former PPL Electric Utilities official, 12,036. Mackenzie was unopposed and received 34,921 votes.
- 1st Congressional District: Incumbent Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick vs. Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie, the Democratic nominee. Harvie defeated mathematician and math teacher Lucia Simonelli to win the Democratic nomination, 51,824 votes to 27,756. Fitzpatrick was unopposed and received 44,232.
- 10th Congressional District: Incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Perry vs. former television anchor Janelle Stelson, the Democratic nominee. Stelson lost to Perry by a single percentage point in 2024, a year that Republican candidates dominated. Stelson defeated Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas, 42,239 votes to 20,385. Perry was unopposed and received 45,768.
Three national House race trackers — The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections — consider Fitzpatrick the least likely to lose, but he’s no lock and the other three are rated either toss-ups or leaning or tilting Republican.
With only two to three dozen House seats considered competitive nationally by analysts, a Democratic sweep of the four seats could figure heavily in who controls the House.
The four seats became significantly more important because Democrats trail Republicans in rewriting congressional districts to favor their party this year, Borick said.
A slim Pa. House majority
In the state House, Democrats enjoy a 102-99 majority with two traditionally Republican seats vacant. (A Republican won one vacancy in a special election Tuesday. A special election for the other is Aug. 18.)
So a flip of even one seat carries huge implications.
In the northeast, Republicans will likely target at least Democratic state Rep. Jim Haddock, the 118th House District representative again in a district that President Trump won in 2024. Haddock faces Republican Luzerne County Councilman John Lombardo, perhaps his strongest challenger so far.
Haddock said he’s expecting a stiff challenge, but pointed out he won by almost 13 percentage points in 2024 as Trump won the district by half that.
“I have 25% of Republicans that will vote for Jim Haddock,” he said. “I'm very fortunate with that. They know I'm a moderate, and they know I've been very effective in my four years in the House.”
Lombardo questioned whether Haddock really has that much Republican support, but thinks he's Haddock's strongest challenger. He's better known and knows how to campaign because of his council candidacies, he said.
He deflected the question of outside Republican support by saying he would "work to build a coalition ... of individuals from all political parties, because you know that's that's a central tenet of my campaign.
"But certainly I am a Republican, and I am seeking out and hoping for the support of many of the organizations that typically support Republican candidates," he said.
Republicans may also target retiring Democratic Rep. Eddie Day Pashinski’s 121st House District seat, a district former Vice President Kamala Harris only narrowly won in 2024. With a lot of help from outside political action committees, Republicans came as close as they ever have at beating Pashinski two years ago with a candidate who barely campaigned.
Democrats nominated Wilkes-Barre City Council President Jessica McClay in the May 19 primary. She will face Bear Creek Village Borough Mayor Mike Harostock, an executive vice president for business development and analytics at an information technology company. Harostock has already shown more campaign activity than Dino Disler, the 2024 Republican candidate.
"While I can’t speak to what outside groups or Republicans in Harrisburg are planning, I can say our campaign is off to a strong start and I humbled by the support we have received," Harostock said in a text. "Endorsements and support from others are important, but I am not running to represent Harrisburg. I’m focused on meeting the voters of the this district face to face and learning about what issues matter to them."
McClay said she expects Republicans to probably "be coming pretty hard" for the seat.
"They haven't been able to gain it," she said. "Now that it's been opened, I think they see an opportunity."
She thinks she'll win with a campaign centered on affordability.
"I think I'm the better candidate. I have the same values that Eddie had, and I want to continue the same work that he's done that's kept him in that seat for 20 years," she said.
Flipping the Pa. Senate
In the state Senate, Republicans have 27 seats, Democrats 23. If Democrats flip two, that will create a tie but would also give them control because Lt. Gov. Austin Davis, a Democrat, would break ties as Senate president. That’s assuming Davis and Gov. Josh Shapiro are re-elected.
In the northeast, Democrats will aim to unseat Republican state Sen. Rosemary Brown, whose district includes parts of Monroe and Lackawanna counties.
“We’re going to go after Rosemary,” said Jalen Nix, executive director of the Pennsylvania Senate Democratic Campaign Committee, citing Monroe County’s trend of adding Democratic voters because of former New Jersey and New York residents migrating to the Poconos. “We think we have a strong candidate.”
Brown’s Democratic opponent is Brian Wrightson, a former American Red Cross official who owns a company that manages communications infrastructure and broadband expansion in Monroe, Lackawanna, and Wayne counties.
“I think there's reason to believe that everything is up for grabs in this election cycle, particularly given how frustrated people are with how things are moving in Washington and how frustrated they are with Republicans who lead the state Senate,” Shapiro said during a Luzerne County visit May 20. “It's been since 1992 The Republicans in the state senate have been in charge. I think folks are ready for a change.”
Repeated efforts to reach Brown were unsuccessful.
What about Josh?
Then there’s Shapiro himself, seeking a second four-year term and eyeing a run for president. Shapiro faces state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, a Republican who grabbed the record for most votes by a statewide candidate in 2024.
“She certainly has attributes that make her candidacy appealing to Republicans and there's hope that at the bare minimum she's competitive in this race in ways that Republicans weren't four years ago. But she's got work to do,” Borick said.
As of May 4, Shapiro had $37.8 million in cash on hand, Garrity, $1.4 million. In the three independent polls of voters this year, Shapiro’s lead ranged from 18 to 22 percentage points.
“When you're fighting a really difficult cycle, you have to be exceptional, especially when you're coming up against some someone as formidable as Josh Shapiro. And so, she hasn't been tested in that way before,” Borick said. “You know, state treasurer races are a different creature than a governor's race.”
Dozens of people in both parties are thinking about running for president in 2028, but Shapiro is among a half dozen Democrats consistently polling at 5% or better, according to RealClearPolling, which aggregates polls.
“How is the governor building his credentials?” Borick said. “Well, he builds it with successful endorsements. He builds it with a record that he can highlight of getting stuff done, and he builds it by showing that he could overwhelmingly win in the country's most-prized presidential battleground. So yeah, he's resume building, and part of that resume would be a convincing re-election.”
Which gives Republicans strong motivation to damage his political credentials.
“There's all kinds of incentives for Republicans to try and invest in that,” Borick said. “If they think — Republican donors and the party think — well, you know, it's going to be hard for her to win here, how much do we want to invest and is there value in investing in making it a close race that's ultimately not successful in claiming the governor's office, but maybe is successful in exposing some weaknesses for Shapiro? I think that's going to be a fascinating storyline this summer to see where the money goes in this race.”
Nicholas, the Republican political consultant, said he expects Garrity to harp on Shapiro’s stances on transgender athletes, school choice and energy, a sexual harassment case against one of his former cabinet secretaries and his presidential aspirations.
“Garrity needs to make Shapiro look like ... a typical self-serving left-of-center politician,” Nicholas said. “I think Stacy Garrity should stress that if voters want to elect a part-time governor, they should vote for Josh Shapiro.”
Asked during the Luzerne County stop about Garrity raising his presidential aspirations, Shapiro deflected the question.
"Look, I'm focused on delivering for the good people of Pennsylvania, something I've done since day one," the governor said. "I'm focused on expanding their freedoms and standing up for our fellow Pennsylvanians. You know, she likes to wear the MAGA hat and salute Donald Trump. I wear the Pennsylvania jersey, and I fight for all Pennsylvanians, Democrats, Republicans, and independents."
History doesn't always repeat
Shapiro argued Democrats are especially enthusiastic this year, but "disaffected Republicans" tired of Trump, the war in Iran and high gas prices will be, too.
"People are clearly looking for a change," he said.
Nicholas said Democrats may feel enthusiasm, but political history shows expectations often meet a different reality.
For starters, Republicans won't just sit on the sidelines. They will target seats they think they can win.
The 36th Senate District seat in Lancaster County Senate remains a prime target because Trump won the district with 57% of the vote in 2024. Democrat James Malone won the seat in a special election last year. Democrats often point to his victory as a sign of trouble for Republicans, but Nicholas said Republicans last year fielded a "divisive" candidate, Lancaster County Commissioner Josh Parsons, against Malone. That seat should flip back, Nicholas said, because Republicans nominated "a standard issue-type" party candidate, state Rep. Tom Jones, as their candidate in the primary.
If Malone loses, Democrats will need to flip three seats held by Republican incumbents, a tough task in any year.
Nicholas also sees Fitzpatrick, Mackenzie and Perry as experienced candidates who know how to win.
Sometimes, races look winnable because of what happened previously, but circumstances change, he said.
He used Stelson and Perry’s 2024 matchup as an example. Perry won by only 1.26 percentage points, leading Democrats to believe Stelson could win a rematch this year because the political climate favors Democrats.
“If she lost by 30,805 votes — I'm just making that (number) up — you can't start this race off thinking I only need 30,806 votes to win, because each election is different,” Nicholas said. “The matrix this year is going to be much different than it was in a presidential year.”
Nicholas pointed to Ashley Ehasz, a former Army helicopter pilot who ran as the Democratic candidate against Fitzpatrick in 2022 (a 9.7-point loss) and 2024 (a 12.8-point loss).
“Regardless of party, gender, location, age, repeat congressional challengers don't have a fantastic record,” he said.
In 2024, he asked, who would have predicted Republican presidential, U.S. Senate and state treasurer, attorney general and auditor general candidates would win the state and Democrats would sweep all five state appeals court seats a year later?
“So, I'm done giving long-term big picture prognostications, right? Because as I say, in politics, there's a pendulum, and the pendulum is undefeated,” Nicholas said.
